Fluktuasi Kunjungan Wisatawan dan Implikasinya terhadap Resiliensi Ekonomi Kabupaten Jayawijaya Periode 2016–2025

Abstract

This study aims to analyze fluctuations in tourist arrivals and their implications for the economic resilience of Jayawijaya Regency during the 2016–2025 period. A quantitative descriptive approach was employed using secondary time-series data obtained from the Jayawijaya Regency Statistics Agency and the Department of Culture and Tourism of Jayawijaya Regency. The analysis focused on identifying tourist arrival trends, evaluating the contribution of tourism-related sectors to the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), and examining the relationship between tourism dynamics and regional socio-economic indicators. The findings reveal that the tourism sector in Jayawijaya exhibits a high degree of volatility due to various internal and external shocks, including the 2018 local shock, the 2019 Wamena unrest, and the COVID-19 pandemic during 2020–2021. The sector demonstrated strong recovery capacity, reaching a record high of 61,930 tourist arrivals in 2024. The results further indicate that declines in tourist arrivals were not always accompanied by contractions in sectoral economic performance, as evidenced by the continued growth of the transportation and warehousing, accommodation, and food service sectors. This condition reflects the strategic role of Jayawijaya as a regional logistics, administrative, and service hub for the Papua Highlands region. However, the increase in tourist arrivals and post-pandemic economic growth has not been fully followed by improvements in socio-economic indicators, particularly unemployment and poverty reduction. The study concludes that tourism development should not be solely oriented toward increasing visitor numbers but should also strengthen regional economic resilience through local economic diversification, greater community participation, and adaptive, inclusive, and sustainable tourism planning.