Analisis Pengaruh Belanja Daerah terhadap Perekonomian di Indonesia Periode 2015–2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55606/jempper.v5i3.8043Keywords:
Economic Growth, Fiscal Decentralization, Fiscal Policy, Regional Expenditure, UU HKPDAbstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of regional government expenditure on Indonesia's economic growth during the 2015–2025 period, encompassing the pre-COVID-19 era, the crisis period, economic recovery phase, and implementation of reforms regarding central-regional financial relations under Law Number 1 of 2022 concerning Financial Relations between the Central Government and Regional Governments (UU HKPD). A quantitative approach was employed using secondary time-series data on realized regional expenditure—sourced from the Directorate General of Fiscal Balance at the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Indonesia—and economic growth data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). Analysis was conducted using linear regression via the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, supplemented by t-tests, F-tests, and the coefficient of determination. The results indicate that regional expenditure has a positive and significant effect on Indonesia's economic growth, with a regression coefficient of 0.0021 and a significance value of 0.0001. An R² value of 0.8140 demonstrates that 81.40% of the variation in economic growth can be explained by regional expenditure. The study's novelty lies in its analysis of the relationship between regional expenditure and economic growth across a timeframe that includes the pre-pandemic, pandemic, recovery, and UU HKPD implementation transition periods. Despite its impact, the effectiveness of regional expenditure faces constraints, specifically the dominance of operational spending and a pattern of budget absorption concentrated at the end of the year. These findings highlight the importance of improving the quality, timeliness, and productivity of regional expenditure to strengthen its impact on economic growth.
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