Pengaruh Current Ratio, Suku Bunga dan Kondisi Finansial Distress terhadap Return Saham pada Perusahaan Manufaktur Subsektor Pulp dan Paper yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2015-2024
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55606/jimak.v4i3.4932Keywords:
Current Ratio, Financial Distress, Interest Rate, Stock ReturnAbstract
Stock returns serve as a key indicator for maximizing profits and minimizing investment risks. This study aims to examine the effect of Current Ratio, Interest Rate, and Financial Distress on Stock Returns in both the short term and long term for manufacturing companies in the pulp and paper sub-sector listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the 2015–2024 period. The research employs a quantitative approach with a sample of 7 companies selected through purposive sampling. Data were analyzed using the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method with the assistance of Eviews 12 software. The results show that in the short term, Current Ratio and Interest Rate do not significantly affect Stock Returns, while Financial Distress has a significant effect. In the long term, Current Ratio, Interest Rate, and Financial Distress all have a significant effect on Stock Returns. These findings imply that investors should carefully consider both company fundamentals and external macroeconomic factors when making investment decisions, particularly for long-term investments.
References
Almashaqbeh, M., Islam, M. A., & Bakar, R. (2021). Factors affecting share prices: A literature revisit. AIP Conference Proceedings, 020143. https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0045110
Altman, E. I., Iwanicz‐Drozdowska, M., Laitinen, E. K., & Suvas, A. (2017). Financial distress prediction in an international context: A review and empirical analysis of Altman’s Z‐score model. Journal of International Financial Management & Accounting, 28(2), 131–171. https://doi.org/10.1111/jifm.12053
Andreou, C. K., Andreou, P. C., & Lambertides, N. (2021). Financial distress risk and stock price crashes. Journal of Corporate Finance, 67, 101870. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101870
Anggriawan, M. A., Kenedi, K., & Kurniawanto, H. (2023). Analisis potensi pajak daerah dengan pendekatan makro-mikro di Kota Serang. Owner, 7(3), 1959–1967. https://doi.org/10.33395/owner.v7i3.1420
Aydoğmuş, M., Gülay, G., & Ergun, K. (2022). Impact of ESG performance on firm value and profitability. Borsa Istanbul Review, 22, S119–S127. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2022.11.006
Bertoneche, M., & Knight, R. (2001). Assessing financial health. In Financial performance (pp. 74–105). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-075064011-4.50003-X
Byrne, P. (2024). The impact of interest rate changes on stock market performance: An empirical analysis. Journal of Economics and Economic Education Research, 25(4), 1–3.
Didier, T., Levine, R., Llovet Montanes, R., & Schmukler, S. L. (2021). Capital market financing and firm growth. Journal of International Money and Finance, 118, 102459. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102459
Dufrénot, G. (2023). Interest rates, financial markets, and macroeconomics. In New challenges for macroeconomic policies (pp. 195–257). Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-15754-7_5
Handriani, E. (2025). Determinant of profitability Islamic banks. JPS (Jurnal Perbankan Syariah), 6(1), 79–99. https://doi.org/10.46367/jps.v6i1.2373
Jin, Z., & Guo, K. (2021). The dynamic relationship between stock market and macroeconomy at sectoral level: Evidence from Chinese and US stock market. Complexity, 2021(1). https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/6645570
Karpavičius, S., & Yu, F. (2017). The impact of interest rates on firms’ financing policies. Journal of Corporate Finance, 45, 262–293. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2017.05.007
Keswani, S., Puri, V., & Jha, R. (2024). Relationship among macroeconomic factors and stock prices: Cointegration approach from the Indian stock market. Cogent Economics & Finance, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2024.2355017
Kontuš, E., & Mihanović, D. (2019). Management of liquidity and liquid assets in small and medium-sized enterprises. Economic Research–Ekonomska Istraživanja, 32(1), 3253–3271. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2019.1660198
Kurniawanto, H., Anggriawan, M. A., Tejaarief, B., & Kenedi, K. (2025). The role of health insurance in facilitating access to healthcare utilization: A case study of BPJS Kesehatan users in Banten Province. Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA, 11(2), 729–741. https://doi.org/10.29303/jppipa.v11i2.9319
Laksana, A., Huda, M., & Kenedi, K. (2023). Analysis of tourism carrying capacity at KSPP Tanjung Lesung as part of sustainable marine tourism development. Teknika: Jurnal Sains dan Teknologi, 19(2), 114–121.
Li, Z., Crook, J., Andreeva, G., & Tang, Y. (2021). Predicting the risk of financial distress using corporate governance measures. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 68, 101334. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pacfin.2020.101334
Naik, P., & Reddy, Y. V. (2021). Stock market liquidity: A literature review. SAGE Open, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244020985529
Octaviani, S., Mahardini, N. Y., & Umdiana, N. (2024). Does financial distress have an impact on stock price? JAK (Jurnal Akuntansi): Kajian Ilmiah Akuntansi, 11(1), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.30656/jak.v11i1.6016
Patil, S., & Bagodi, V. (2021). A study of factors affecting investment decisions in India: The KANO way. Asia Pacific Management Review, 26(4), 197–214. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apmrv.2021.02.004
Permana, B. R. S., Kenedi, K., & Huda, M. (2024). Utilization of virtual reality as a sustainable tourism promotion strategy based on information technology in Banten Province. JINAV: Journal of Information and Visualization, 5(2), 229–239. https://doi.org/10.35877/454RI.jinav3055
Pozzoli, M., & Paolone, F. (2017). Defining corporate financial distress and bankruptcy. In Corporate Bankruptcy (pp. 3–10). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-67355-4_2
Saefullah, E., Kenedi, K., & Khaerudin, D. (2024). Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in beef cattle farming through the implementation of animal welfare principles, as part of sustainable rural area development. Jurnal Penelitian Pendidikan IPA, 10(4), 1468–1476. https://doi.org/10.29303/jppipa.v10i4.6824
Saukkonen, N., & Kirjavainen, J. (2020). Business environment: Emerging external and internal pressures for sustainable production. In Sustainable Manufacturing (pp. 37–48). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-95726-5_1
Shakespeare, C. (2020). Reporting matters: The real effects of financial reporting on investing and financing decisions. Accounting and Business Research, 50(5), 425–442. https://doi.org/10.1080/00014788.2020.1770928
Siahaan, S. M. N., Sadalia, I., & Silalahi, A. S. (2021). Effect of financial ratios on stock returns with earning per share as moderating variable in banking companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (2012–2017 period). International Journal of Research and Review, 8(8), 398–406. https://doi.org/10.52403/ijrr.20210855
Singh, A. (2023). The role of central banks in managing monetary policy and its effects on the economy. Journal of Student Research, 12(4). https://doi.org/10.47611/jsrhs.v12i4.5327
Suidarma, I. M., & Chairunnisia, R. (2024). Profitability and liquidity to increase company value through dividend policy: A case study on an infrastructure company listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2019–2021 period. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Economics and Business (pp. 352–362). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-53998-5_30
Tahmat, T., & Melindyana, I. (2024). Internal and external factors on stock returns: Evidence from the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Multifinance, 2(2), 59–69. https://doi.org/10.61397/mfc.v2i2.259
Tuna, G., & Almahadin, H. A. (2021). Does interest rate and its volatility affect banking sector development? Empirical evidence from emerging market economies. Research in International Business and Finance, 58, 101436. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101436
Vassalou, M., & Xing, Y. (2004). Default risk in equity returns. The Journal of Finance, 59(2), 831–868. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.2004.00650.x
Whited, T. M., Wu, Y., & Xiao, K. (2021). Low interest rates and risk incentives for banks with market power. Journal of Monetary Economics, 121, 155–174. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2021.04.006
Yang, X., & Hu, Y. (2024). Default risk and stock returns: From a perspective of measurement errors. International Review of Economics & Finance, 92, 1545–1561. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2024.02.026
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Jurnal Ilmiah Manajemen dan Kewirausahaan
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
